US yield curve: 10 years minus 2 years
The gap between the 10-year and the 2-year US Treasury yields. It is normally positive; when it turns negative the curve is said to be inverted, which has often come before economic slowdowns. It is a reading of the bond market, not a forecast.
Today the curve is not inverted: 0.33 points (10 years minus 2 years).
A line above zero is a normal curve; below zero it is inverted. An inversion has preceded past recessions with a long and uneven delay, and it has also been followed by no recession.
Source: US Treasury daily yield curve rates. Last two years shown.
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